NVCOG data team unveils DEF 2060 forecast and an interactive dashboard for towns

Tim Nolan, NVCOG's data scientist, described a demographic and economic forecast model called DEF 2060 that projects population, housing stock and labor-force measures for Connecticut's 169 municipalities in five‑year increments through 2060. Nolan said the model uses publicly available data (Census Bureau, IRS, BLS, BEA) with some detailed births/deaths data from the Connecticut Department of Public Health to build Monte Carlo scenarios and confidence intervals.

"Everything you see on this screen... can be accessed freely on the Internet with the exception of some of the detailed births and deaths data, which I acquired from the Connecticut Department of Public Health," Nolan said. He noted the model produces a range of outcomes (high/low migration scenarios) and that more simulations will tighten confidence intervals.

Nolan announced a forthcoming interactive dashboard on NVCOG's maps and data page so towns can view forecasts for their municipality or region, including population, housing units, households, employment and labor-force projections. He said the forecast will help target investments and feed into the metropolitan transportation plan's financial and travel-demand modeling.

Nolan characterized the current model as an 'alpha' version that has been vetted by statisticians and demographers and that NVCOG will accept feedback as it continues to refine the tool.

Next steps: NVCOG will publish the dashboard the following week and invite municipal staff to a lunch-and-learn on the model's mechanics; the DEF will be used in MTP and regional housing assessments.