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Consultants defend Winslow land-capacity methodology; council presses on covenants, buildout assumptions and water supply
Summary
LMN Architects and city staff told the council they adjusted Kitsap County's buildable-lands methodology for the Winslow subarea to account for upzoning and urban conditions, adding an FAR-based utilization screen to capture redevelopment potential; council members asked how covenants, recorded plats, groundwater limits and participation rates would affect capacity projections.
City planning staff and consultants presented a technical briefing on the land-capacity analysis used for the Winslow subarea and the rest of Bainbridge Island.
"A land capacity methodology is a highly technical tool," Planning Director Patty Charnas said. She told the council that Winslow's urban parcels and higher land values require a different calibration than the county method used for the island's low-density areas.
Consultant Riley McPhee (LMN Architects) walked council members through the Winslow approach and why some county assumptions needed refinement. McPhee used a High School Road parcel occupied by a Walgreens to show how existing land-value screening could miss redevelopment potential if zoning is upzoned. "Under a 3.5 FAR ... you could develop 238,000 square feet ... the existing square footage ... means that site is only 6 percent utilized," McPhee said, and LMN added a utilization test comparing existing building area to potential area under proposed FAR so parcels with redevelopment potential are not screened out.
LMN emphasized the analysis focuses on what development is reasonably expected to occur during the 20-year planning period, not on unconstrained maximum buildout. The consultants said they calibrated assumed densities based on expected development patterns, historical precedent where available, and local factors such as height limits, setbacks and parking requirements.
Council members asked whether the methodology accounts for recorded covenants, plats or other legal restrictions that could prevent redevelopment of individual parcels. McPhee said the county-scale BLR method is automated and cannot easily incorporate parcel-level covenants; where known constraints exist the team attempts to factor them in, but many covenants are not captured in automated datasets. Council members also asked whether the analysis considered the projected life span of existing buildings; LMN said building age is not directly used in the screening because the analysis seeks to capture developer incentives and conditions expected during the planning period.
Several council members raised water-supply and groundwater-management concerns as factors that could limit feasible development. The consultants said Commerce guidance requires consideration of capital facilities and that the city should demonstrate general alignment with infrastructure planning (e.g., water and sewer) for the 20-year planning period.
Next steps: LMN said it would deliver updated capacity projections to city staff within days, and staff will provide the consolidated materials to Commerce as part of the selected-review submission. The council voted to refer the Commerce guidance follow-up and study-session planning to the steering committee so staff and the planning commission can refine questions and prepare materials for a future council discussion.
Why this matters: the land-capacity analysis underpins whether Bainbridge can demonstrate enough housing capacity across income bands. Adjustments to methodology, assumptions about participation in voluntary inclusionary programs and constraints such as water supply or covenants can change whether the plan meets statutory requirements.
Ending: Consultants and staff said revisions to account for voluntary inclusionary zoning participation rates were underway and that the city's next round of projections would be submitted to Commerce on the near-term schedule.
