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Commission places prediction‑market offenses on unranked list amid breadth and litigation concerns
Summary
Citing a broad range of potential harms and pending litigation over the session law, the Sentencing Guidelines Commission voted unanimously to add operating/facilitating/advertising prediction‑market offenses to the guidelines' unranked list and to publish the change for public comment.
The Sentencing Guidelines Commission on June 4 voted unanimously to place offenses related to operating, facilitating or advertising prediction markets on the guidelines' unranked list, citing concerns about the statute's breadth and ongoing litigation.
Commissioner Castro urged caution, noting the "range of possibilities of damage that could be done" — from benign wagers on weather to bets tied to death or political outcomes — and argued that such divergent harms make single‑level ranking inappropriate. "The range is broad too broad for us to pick a slot in the severity levels," he said. Other commissioners agreed that the enumerated items in the session law are diverse and that leaving the offenses unranked will allow sentencing courts discretion to address the widely varying harms.
Staff noted the law had been enacted twice this session and that litigation was underway; staff also pointed out that the final version narrowed the definitional list but still contains categories that could involve events affecting people directly (including violent or political events). Given the novelty and active legal challenges, the commission added those offenses to the unranked list (11–0). The unranked designation preserves judicial discretion and flags the offenses for careful scrutiny during the public‑hearing period.
The commission will include the unranked designation in the materials published ahead of the July public hearing.
