Advisory groups recommend delaying tax bump, commissioning cost study and creating rainy‑day fund for Preschool for All

Multnomah County staff and consultants presented final recommendations from two time‑limited advisory bodies — the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and Program Advisory Group (PAG) — on the county’s Preschool for All (PFA) program. Stephen Herrera and consultants from Eco Northwest described a dynamic financial model and sensitivity scenarios that informed TAG’s recommendations. The TAG and PAG recommended four core next steps: commission a preschool true cost study, refine population and participation assumptions, delay the scheduled tax bump for two years, and establish a rainy‑day fund to protect program stability.

The consultants presented demographic assumptions used in modeling: roughly 6,900 recent births and historical net out‑migration that produce an estimated 12,600 three‑ and four‑year‑olds county‑wide. TAG used a 77.5% participation assumption in baseline scenarios (approximately 9,765 children seeking preschool seats) and ran sensitivity tests against higher participation and higher cost scenarios. Charles Reinerson, the demographer on the panel, noted that small changes in participation or population assumptions materially change long‑term fund balance projections.

On revenue policy, TAG recommended delaying a previously scheduled marginal tax increase for high‑income filers for two years to allow the county time to incorporate the true cost of care results and updated population modeling. Mike Wilkerson of Eco Northwest said the two‑year delay would reduce near‑term revenue by roughly $65–70 million per year of delay (about $130 million for two years), and the TAG judged that delay compatible with its sustainability criteria under the modeled scenarios.

PAG members urged focus on provider viability and program design to preserve access and quality as the program expands. Dana Hepper emphasized the need for a true cost study to ground assumptions around cost per child and long‑term projections; staff said that study is expected to conclude in June. Commissioners asked about enrolling mechanics, rolling admissions, equity, indexing the tax, and the administrative feasibility of credits or co‑pays; consultants and staff agreed to integrate the new cost and demographic data into the financial model for board work sessions in June–July. Staff set deadlines for board requests: May 14 for additional modeling requests and August 20 and 27 for board votes if the board is ready.