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UCF economist tells Sarasota County commissioners the outlook is uncertain; energy prices and AI top local concerns
Summary
Dr. Sean Snaith told Sarasota County commissioners May 20 that the national economy faces cross‑currents — higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict, lingering inflation effects, and AI‑driven structural change — and that those forces could slow growth and raise recession risk if they persist.
Dr. Sean Snaith, professor and director of the economic center at the University of Central Florida, delivered an annual forecast to the Sarasota County Commission on May 20 and warned of heightened uncertainty driven by geopolitics, energy prices and rapid advances in artificial intelligence.
Snaith said recent events — including the conflict in Iran — had pushed fuel costs higher and that the persistence of elevated energy prices could push consumer sentiment and spending downward. "The longer this goes on, the greater the damage and the greater the potential, for the economy to slip into a recession," he said.
On labor markets and technology, Snaith said AI will be disruptive but cautioned against simplistic predictions that it will eliminate most jobs. He described the current phase as similar to past technology cycles: winners will emerge, some occupations will shrink, and new roles will appear. "Will absolutely some jobs be replaced? Yes," he said. "How widespread is it gonna be? That remains yet to be seen."
Snaith also addressed revisions to national jobs data for 2023–24, saying the large downward revisions were largely methodological — declining survey response rates — rather than deliberate manipulation. "It wasn't that the data was fake. It's that the methodology needed a rework," he told the commissioners.
Local implications: Snaith reviewed Florida‑level indicators and advised commissioners that, while housing prices had stabilized statewide and in Sarasota County, affordability and insurance costs continue to stress household budgets. He recommended the board account for slower payroll growth and potential increased operating costs tied to energy and capital projects when planning budgets.
Q&A and follow up: Commissioners asked about specific local concerns including AI's effects on local employment, the potential for data centers in Florida given water and power needs, and lags between macro shocks and local data. Snaith said lags vary by sector and that tourism and agriculture can show effects with a multi‑month lag if energy prices remain elevated.
What’s next: Snaith pointed commissioners to the Institute’s forecasts (IEC.UCF.EDU) for more granular state and metropolitan area projections. Staff will use the economic context in the June budget workshop and in updating revenue assumptions for the FY27 budget.
