Colorado River Authority warns of low Powell inflows and fractured interstate talks ahead of 2026 deadlines

Mark Stilson of the Colorado River Authority briefed the commission on basin conditions and interstate negotiations, emphasizing both hydrology and the stakes for regional water management.

Stilson said the Upper Colorado River Basin snowpack stood around 68% basin‑wide and reported projected inflows to Lake Powell of approximately 3.5–5.0 million acre‑feet (about 37%–52% of average). He noted Lake Powell was roughly 25% full and Lake Mead about 34% full. Using Bureau of Reclamation projections, Stilson said a pessimistic scenario could draw Powell down to minimum power‑pool elevation as early as August in some models.

On negotiations, Stilson described a central disagreement: the lower‑basin states pressing for mandatory reductions while upper‑basin negotiators sought voluntary, state‑led reductions. He said two short‑term operational agreements (2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans) expire in October and that the seven basin states had missed two key negotiating deadlines. The federal government is preparing a drought environmental impact statement that lists several alternatives, and the Authority has enrolled about 16,000 acre‑feet into a two‑year demand‑management pilot with a target reduction of roughly 12,000 acre‑feet.

Stilson recommended that local leaders track Bureau of Reclamation updates and state negotiation announcements and highlighted measurement‑improvement pilots including aerial lidar snow surveys and telemetry for water‑use measurement. Commissioners asked for sources for ongoing updates; Stilson pointed to the Authority’s website and newsletter and to additional research outlets.

The briefing underscored near‑term hydrologic risk and the policy choices facing basin states as operational agreements lapse.