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Becker pitches data-driven fix for housing-element site inventories
Summary
Author Becker told the Assembly housing committee SB457 would let cities use model-based, probabilistic site inventories and give localities a compliance safe harbor; economists and a UC Davis law professor testified it would add 'economic realism' to RHNA planning and reduce costly parcel-by-parcel paperwork.
Author Becker asked the Assembly Housing and Community Development Committee to back SB457, a bill he described as a way to reduce time and cost in local housing-element site inventory analyses while preserving local zoning choices. “Cities in my district spend approximately $25,000,000… on the 6th cycle alone,” Becker said, arguing much of the expense goes to paperwork rather than housing.
The bill would let HCD and cities use model-based approaches to estimate a site’s expected yield rather than treating parcels as categorically usable or not, Becker said. Ted Egan, chief economist for the City and County of San Francisco, described models his office has used that analyze every parcel’s past development activity and market and parcel characteristics to forecast future housing production. “The value of these models comes from the fact that they use data on past construction to forecast the future,” Egan said.
UC Davis law professor Chris Elmendorf told the committee the current law produces legal uncertainty and that SB457 would empower HCD to publish an objective scoring rubric so cities could present compliant plans with predictable outcomes. “No city would be required to use it, but cities that do so would be insulated from lawsuits arguing that their housing plans do not provide sufficient capacity,” Elmendorf said.
Committee members said they welcomed the effort to tie decisions to data but pressed whether the new approach might reduce local discretion; Becker and witnesses said the bill “does not tell cities how to zone” and would preserve public input and fair-housing obligations. The chair said the approach could help ensure that zoning and plans actually lead to housing being built.
Outcome and next steps: The committee took the bill under consideration and will vote when full quorum membership is present. The committee acknowledged the urgency because the first housing elements for the next cycle are due in January 2029.
