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Lake County hears investment outlook; advisor urges locking attractive yields amid tariff-driven uncertainty
Summary
At its April 17 meeting, the Lake County Investment Advisory Committee received a market update from Miss Stanick of Meter, who urged a cautious approach amid tariff-related uncertainty and recommended locking longer-term yields while preserving liquidity; minutes were approved unanimously and the meeting adjourned.
Miss Stanick, an investment adviser with Meter, told the Lake County Investment Advisory Committee on April 17 that recent tariff announcements have increased market uncertainty and are shaping the firm’s outlook for interest rates and portfolio positioning.
"There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the marketplace," Stanick said, noting Meter issued a white paper and held a webinar addressing tariff-related risks. She said the firm now serves 429 public entities and that its public-entity assets under management total $59 billion.
The presentation laid out the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and the divergence between market expectations and Federal Reserve guidance. Stanick said markets at times have priced in more near-term rate cuts than the Fed, and she described a range of possible paths for 2025 cuts, with some market measures moving the timing into mid-to-late 2025.
Stanick highlighted persistent inflation measures and consumer expectations, citing a one-year consumer inflation expectation that rose from about 3.13% to 3.58% in a New York Fed survey and a core personal consumption expenditures reading near 2.6% on the last reading. She warned that stagflation—slower growth with sustained inflation—remains a risk, and she emphasized the importance of employment data in the outlook.
On market mechanics, Stanick pointed to sizable intraday volatility in Treasury yields, noting that two-year yields have at times moved 50–60 basis points within a day. She described current Treasury and short-term rates as "attractive" relative to historical norms and recommended that Lake County consider locking in longer-term yields when appropriate to protect interest income.
Stanick then reviewed the county’s portfolio composition: a securities position of about $282 million, $426 million described as operating funds, and a weighted average yield on the operating portion of roughly 3.65% (up from the prior quarter). She said the maturity distribution was deliberately weighted toward 0–1 year to retain liquidity while allowing reinvestment opportunities as market conditions evolve.
A committee member thanked Stanick for the weekly coordination between county officials and the advisor. No committee questions were recorded following the presentation.
Earlier in the brief meeting the committee unanimously approved the minutes of Jan. 9, 2025. The committee then moved to adjourn.
