Lake County investment adviser briefs committee on market volatility and portfolio strategy

Miss Stanick, the committee's investment adviser, told the Lake County Investment Advisory Committee on April 17 that recent tariff announcements and intraday moves in Treasury yields have raised "the certainty of uncertainty" in markets and are driving how public-entity portfolios are positioned.

Stanick said the firm filed its annual regulatory report with the Securities and Exchange Commission and now serves 429 public entities, with public-entity assets under management totaling about $59 billion. "We now serve 429 public entities throughout the nation," she said, adding the firm had issued a white paper and hosted a webinar to explain tariff-related risks.

The presenter told the committee the Federal Reserve remains cautious and that market pricing currently anticipates rate cuts later in 2025; she said cuts are unlikely before midyear and that the Fed wants to see more data before acting. "Expectations are that rate cuts will not start till the latter part of this year, maybe as early as June or July," Stanick said.

Stanick reviewed inflation and labor metrics the Fed watches. She cited a recent core PCE reading near 2.6% and said headline CPI has come down to about 2.4%; she also noted one-year consumer inflation expectations in a New York Fed survey rose from about 3.13% to about 3.58%. On employment, she reported an unemployment rate near 4.2% and said three-month average job growth in the first quarter of 2025 was roughly 152,000.

Turning to county finances, Stanick summarized the portfolio breakdown: a securities piece of approximately $282 million and about $426 million characterized as operating funds. The operating portion has a weighted average yield of about 3.65%, she said, up from the prior quarter. She also described a deliberate concentration of maturities in the 0-to-1-year range to preserve liquidity for county operations and projects.

"When opportunities do present themselves . . . we think it's prudent to continue to at least lock in these rates," Stanick said, describing instances where longer-term securities yielded in ranges the adviser considered attractive and appropriate to hold for longer periods while balancing near-term cash needs, including funds earmarked for the county's safety center.

Committee members thanked Stanick and county treasury staff for weekly coordination on maturing securities and reinvestment timing. No substantive questions were raised after the presentation. Earlier in the meeting the committee moved, seconded and unanimously approved the minutes of the Jan. 9, 2025 meeting on a voice vote; the meeting then moved to a procedural motion to adjourn.

The committee did not take formal policy votes or adopt changes to investment policy during the session; it heard the adviser’s market outlook and portfolio recommendations and signaled continued coordination on reinvestment timing.