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Officials warn fiscal impacts of 50% ballot initiative remain uncertain for schools and local government
Summary
Department and LSO briefed the committee on fiscal estimates for the 50% dwelling-only ballot initiative: prior estimates ranged from about $124M to $137M for statewide impacts; local subdivision impacts (schools, districts) are not fully included in some published estimates, leaving county and school finance consequences unclear.
Committee members spent substantial time examining the fiscal consequences of the proposed voters' initiative to exempt 50% of dwelling value for owner-occupied residences.
Brett Fanning, director of the Department of Revenue, said tracking exemptions on the sales/use side is difficult but confirmed that when the initiative requested a fiscal impact in 2023 the department produced an estimate for the 50% dwelling-only proposal using 2022 data; that figure was about $137 million. He and LSO staff later collaborated on a fiscal estimate that included current law provisions and produced an estimate in the low-to-mid-$120 millions depending on assumptions.
Fanning cautioned the committee that different publicly circulated fiscal figures may only account for state-level impacts (school foundation or other state-collected pieces) and explicitly exclude impacts on political subdivisions. "This is an estimate of the fiscal impact to the state of Wyoming only and does not include an estimate of any impact upon political subdivisions," staff noted as they discussed an advertised number.
Members asked who would backfill lost school foundation revenue if the initiative passed; staff said that is a policy decision for the legislature and that some past department and LSO estimates used 2022 or 2025 base data to produce statewide dollar ranges for voters and the committee. The department and LSO agreed to continue refining county-level and school-district-level modelling and to coordinate with the Secretary of State as ballot language and published fiscal statements are refined.
Committee members asked the Secretary of State for clarity on published fiscal notices and requested staff follow up to ensure the public and local governments understand both state and local budget consequences.
