Planner warns long‑term demographics will reshape housing and services; council discusses 'where to swing' on growth

Planning staff presented a demographic briefing drawing on the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute that staff said should influence the city's long‑range land‑use strategy. Steve Pastrick summarized key projections: statewide fertility and natural increase will decline over decades, growth will increasingly come from net migration, average household size is projected to fall (Kem C. Gardner projects Utah average household size could drop from roughly 3.0 to about 2.3 by 2065), and the median age in Utah is projected to rise substantially.

Pastrick said those shifts mean the relationship between new housing and population is changing: "As household sizes shrink, you are just getting fewer people per household," he told the council, and noted West Valley added housing units in recent years while official population estimates did not rise commensurately. He offered a worked example: if West Valley's household size fell by the same percentage as the state projection, the city would need approximately 12,500 additional housing units to keep its current population.

Council members discussed policy choices: encourage infill and intensification (for example, ADUs and redevelopment), maintain a status quo that accepts an aging and potentially shrinking population, or pursue other strategies. Pastrick suggested the council consider where it wants to position the city on that land‑use spectrum and to plan for services needed by an older population (for example, senior programming and altered parks/facilities).

No formal action was taken; the presentation was framed as context for the city's ongoing general‑plan update.