Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Planning Administration topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Planning commission backs staff's amendment to 2040 population/household forecasts after Met Council guidance concerns
Summary
City staff told the Lake Elmo Planning Commission that Met Council system-statement forecasts and a White Bear Lake-related policy memo could cap future sewer/utility allocations; the commission voted to recommend amending the 2040 comp-plan forecasts to align with observed pipeline development and staff projections so that the city has a workable baseline for the 2050 plan.
Lake Elmo planning staff asked the commission on June 8 to recommend a revision to the city's 2040 comprehensive-plan population and household forecasts after the Metropolitan Council's 2025 system statement and a White Bear Lake-related guidance memo created uncertainty about permissible forecast increases.
Staff described how the Met Council publishes system statements that include forecasted households and population, which inform regional wastewater and utility planning. The 2025 system statement showed lower population estimates for Lake Elmo than city staff's assessment of development currently in the pipeline. Staff told the commission the discrepancy is partly due to regional trend assumptions used by the Met Council and partly the result of a Met Council memo tied to the White Bear Lake court issue that signals the Met Council may withhold consent for forecast increases until water-supply and court-order issues are resolved.
To avoid a planning "ceiling" that would complicate utility and land-use approvals, staff proposed adjusting the city's adopted 2040 forecasts upward for 2030 and 2040 household and population figures to better reflect projects already permitted or actively in the development queue. Staff argued the change will provide continuity between the 2040 and upcoming 2050 comprehensive-plan work and allow the city to coordinate with the Met Council on a realistic baseline.
Commissioners discussed the trade-offs, including legal and infrastructure risks if growth exceeds utility capacity. Staff said Met Council staff indicated a willingness to coordinate on forecast adjustments but that a formal increase could be contingent on resolution of water-supply policy issues tied to the White Bear Lake matter. After a public hearing with no comments, the commission voted to recommend that the City Council approve the forecast amendments identified by staff.
What happens next: The commission's recommendation will go to the City Council. If the council approves the amendment, staff will submit the revised forecasts to the Met Council and continue technical coordination related to sewer, water and growth assumptions as the city develops its 2050 comprehensive plan.
