Five-year forecast warns Indian Hill of revenue loss under new Ohio property-tax rules; board to revisit levy timing

Mr. Davis delivered the district’s February 2026 five-year forecast and described recent state-law changes he said reduce future revenue. "I think this will probably be one of my most impactful five-year forecasts that I'm ever going to have here at Indian Hill," he told the board as he summarized projections.

Mr. Davis explained three primary mechanisms behind the revenue gap: a three-year inflation cap applied to the 20-mill floor (referenced as House Bill 1820/186 in the presentation), a cap on inside millage growth (House Bill 335) that affects the district’s 6.41 mills of inside millage, and modifications to the reappraisal schedule by the Ohio Department of Taxation. He described how House Bill 920 historically limited revenue growth by adjusting factors as property values changed, and how the new measures alter that interplay and create a measurable delta in projected revenue.

Using his model, Mr. Davis showed that days-of-cash-on-hand could fall from roughly 49 days to about 31 days by 2030 under the current statutory assumptions. He said such a decline increases cash-flow risk during low-receipt months and reduces flexibility for unplanned expenses. On the extreme end, he noted a ballot initiative to abolish property taxes remains a "risk scenario" under discussion; "If property taxes go away, that's about 85 to 90% of our revenue," he said.

Board members asked about practical consequences and mitigation. Mr. Davis cited examples of rising operating costs and capital needs: school buses priced now at about $170,360 each compared with roughly $106,000 five years ago, a 15% insurance cost increase, and $38 million in recent residential new-construction value that affects valuation cycles. He recommended delaying levy timing discussions to maximize inflationary growth tied to the 20-mill floor and called for a thorough review of expenditure priorities to preserve program quality while maintaining fiscal stability.

The board voted to approve the superintendent and treasurer reports, which included consent items linked to the forecast discussion: increased appropriations including a $62,397 school-safety grant allocation, and authorization to purchase two buses at $170,360 each through the Southwestern Ohio Educational Purchasing Council. The board approved routine minutes and financial reports with recorded yes votes from members present.

The presenters and board agreed to monitor developments in Columbus closely and to expand public communication about what property taxes fund locally as the district prepares for future levy conversations.