Indian Hill forecast warns property-tax reforms will cut district revenue, risk cash reserves

Indian Hill Exempted Village school officials told the board that recently enacted Ohio tax changes are likely to reduce the district’s revenue over the coming five years and could tighten cash flow to levels that limit flexibility for operations and capital needs.

Mick, who presented the February five‑year forecast, said the district’s current outlook diverges sharply from earlier projections because three state policy changes — an inflation cap, inside‑millage limits and a reappraisal‑timing adjustment — together create a substantial delta in expected revenue. "This will probably be one of my most impactful five‑year forecasts that I'm ever going to have here at Indian Hill," he said, summarizing the risk to future cash balances.

The presentation reviewed key dates that affect revenue, including levy expirations and a final bond payment in December 2027, and explained the mechanics of House Bill 920 and the district’s 20‑mill floor. Mick said the new state measures (described during the presentation as changes tied to House Bills referenced in the discussion) introduce caps on inflationary increases and on inside millage adjustments that previously would have restored the district’s factor when valuations rose.

Mick showed that under current assumptions the district’s estimated days of cash on hand decline from roughly 49 days to about 31 days by 2030, creating cash‑flow risks during low‑revenue months such as December and January. "As we get lower on days of cash on hand, we have cash flow risks," he said, noting lowered flexibility to pay for unplanned needs such as new buses or emergency repairs.

He also described a risk scenario — not a forecast — in which a ballot effort to abolish property taxes would eliminate roughly 85–90% of district revenue and would be a ‘‘nuclear option’’ for local government finances. He said proponents were still gathering signatures to qualify a ballot measure.

Trustees pressed for specifics on program impacts and short‑term operational needs during a Q&A. Board members asked about rating‑agency thresholds and the effect on bond ratings; Mick said sustained low reserves would make it harder to retain top ratings and would increase fiscal caution flags. Trustees also asked about precise cost pressures: Mick cited that buses approved recently cost about $152,000 each and that the two buses on the current agenda were priced at $170,360 apiece. He described a 15% increase this year in the district’s health‑insurance costs and rising energy bills.

Mick recommended the board time any future levy requests to maximize the allowance created by current factor rules and to re‑examine the district’s expenditures and priorities. "We can do a couple things: we can complain about it or we can do the responsible thing and take a hard look at our own budget," he said.

What’s next: The board did not take any binding action on the forecast itself but accepted the presentation and directed staff to continue committee work on budget priorities and to bring options back to the board. The treasurer’s related financial items and bus purchases that evening proceeded as routine business.

Speakers quoted: Mick; board members (questions and votes were recorded).