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Council adopts revised 2040 forecast numbers after Met Council guidance prompts debate
Summary
Lake Elmo approved amendments to its 2040 population and household forecasts after staff presented Met Council guidance tied to a White Bear Lake memo; councilors flagged concerns about the memo's procedural origins and potential sewer and water-capacity implications.
The Lake Elmo City Council voted to amend its 2040 comprehensive-plan forecast numbers following staff briefings and Planning Commission recommendation.
City planning staff told the council the Metropolitan Council provided suggested forecast changes after releasing a policy memo related to the White Bear Lake decision, and that those adjustments would affect household and population figures carried forward into Lake Elmo’s 2040 plan. Staff said local development activity already suggests the city will exceed earlier Met Council projections: "we are already not aligned," a council discussion noted, and staff projected roughly 19,000 residents by 2030 and about 22,000 by 2040 based on pipeline development.
Council members expressed concern about the Met Council memo and whether it amounted to a staff-level policy change with regulatory effect. One council member described the memo as potentially issued without full board adoption and asked the city’s Met Council representatives to clarify the policy’s status. The mayor said the city will pursue further conversations with the Met Council, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Department of Natural Resources as needed.
Council approved an amended forecast motion that reflects the Met Council’s suggested numbers for the plan amendment; staff said the Met Council is likely to accept an amendment that follows the numbers it recommended. Members emphasized the practical implications: forecasts feed into sewer-capacity planning and DNR water-supply reviews, so differences in population assumptions can affect the timing and scale of regional infrastructure investments.
Councilors and staff also discussed strategies the city could use—such as tightening density ranges in its land-use table or working with Met Council staff—to resolve mismatches between pipeline development and the regional forecast timeline. The amendment passed on a council voice vote.
