June forecasts show slight declines in common-school enrollment, mixed signals for special education and bilingual programs

Paula Moore, senior forecaster and Deputy Director designate, led the education forecast presentation and highlighted modest declines in overall enrollment alongside divergent trends for specific programs.

"Common schools are down point 2% from the February forecast," Moore said, adding that cohort size shifts drive a subtle multi-year decline. She told the council the common-school projection reflects smaller incoming cohorts relative to graduating classes and that the longer forecast horizon extends trends to aid the next budgeting cycle.

Moore said special education is down 0.4% for the current biennium but is expected to grow an average of 1.1% in the next biennium. On bilingual education she cautioned the forecast carries the most risk: "Bilingual education is our forecast with the most risk. It is down point 6%" and is sensitive to testing policy, state job and population trends, and U.S. immigration policy changes.

On transition-to-kindergarten programming, Moore said statutory budget language ties the program to a $65,000,000 annual cap that reduces slots over time as inflation erodes purchasing power. "This 1 is declining, and it is due to a policy step in the budget, which has this program operating within $65,000,000 a year," Moore said, noting the forecast assumes funding flat at that level and will be updated to tie to enacted budgets.

Why it matters: these enrollment and program forecasts feed state budget planning for K–12 and early-learning programs, and the bilingual forecast in particular carries uncertainty tied to testing and immigration policy developments. Staff said they will continue to refine forecasts in October and January as new data become available.

Next steps: the council will incorporate additional data cycles and technical work group input ahead of the November forecast update.