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DWS research: roughly half of Wyoming high‑school seniors remain working in‑state after five years; millennials declined after 2015–16 downturn
Summary
Department of Workforce Services research presented cohort tracking of Wyoming high‑school seniors (2010–11 through 2023–24) showing a 5‑year in‑state retention average of 55.1% and a 10‑year average of 46.1%. Analysts said the 2015–16 energy downturn accelerated millennial exit from the state's workforce.
Michael Moore, research supervisor at the Department of Workforce Services’ Research and Planning unit, presented a linked‑data analysis tracking 14 cohorts of Wyoming high‑school seniors. The study linked education records to administrative employment files and found that, on average, 55.1% of seniors were still working in Wyoming five years after graduation and 46.1% were working in the state ten years later.
Moore said the pattern of post‑graduation out‑migration is persistent rather than new. Graduates had higher retention than non‑graduates: 77% of graduates worked during their senior year (compared with 45.4% of non‑graduates) and graduates had a higher five‑year retention (57.2% vs. 36.9%).
The presentation singled out the 2015–16 recession—when Wyoming lost jobs while surrounding states continued to add them—as an inflection point. Moore showed that Wyoming’s millennial population (ages 28–43 in 2024) shrank in workforce participation between 2014 and 2024: the number of millennials working in Wyoming dropped about 19% from 2014 to 2024, a sharper decline than the change in statewide millennial population.
Council members asked about tracking remote work and whether the research captures residents who earn wages from out of state while living in Wyoming; Moore said telework is difficult to measure and that he and his team have explored Census microdata and driver's‑license changes as partial signals but lack a comprehensive national‑to‑state wage link to capture all remote employment.
Moore recommended continued monitoring and suggested the council consider the timing and design of local workforce and amenity investments to retain or attract young workers. The council discussed messaging to youth, the "boomerang" return hypothesis, childcare and healthcare access, and the need to track longer‑term outcomes for young workers who receive internships and training.
