Board OKs 12‑month demographic study to inform bond planning and possible consolidation

The Heber‑Overgaard Unified School District No. 6 Governing Board approved a demographic study by Applied Economics at its May 12 meeting to produce 10‑year enrollment and housing projections and grade‑level forecasts.

Superintendent Ron Tenney described the study’s four tasks: data collection (enrollment trends, county housing and land‑use data), analysis and forecasting (10‑year housing projections and student generation rates), in‑district enrollment projections by grade, and a PowerPoint presentation of findings to the governing board. The district will procure the study via a cooperative purchasing agreement; the timeline is approximately 12 months.

Tenney said the study is intended to inform evaluation of the district’s current bond, which sunsets in 2028, and to provide data should leaders consider K–6 campus consolidation if enrollment continues to decline. The governing board voted to approve the work (motion by Wendy Hall, second by John Piva). The minutes record the motion carried; individual vote tallies were not specified.

Why it matters: Reliable demographic and housing forecasts are foundational for bond planning, facility decisions and long‑term staffing and programming. The study represents a first formal demographic analysis in recent district history and will shape discussions about facilities, potential consolidation and capital needs ahead of the 2028 bond sunset.

Next steps: Applied Economics will begin data collection and analysis under the cooperative agreement and present interim and final findings to the board over the coming year.