Indian Hill five-year forecast warns of revenue gap tied to new Ohio property-tax rules

The Indian Hill Exempted Village Board received a detailed five-year financial forecast showing a notable revenue shortfall beginning in 2029 and a substantial gap by 2030. The district finance presenter linked the change to three recent legislative mechanisms: a three-year inflation cap on the 20-mill floor, caps or credits affecting inside millage, and changes to the county reappraisal schedule. Together, these changes create a projected delta between the prior (October) forecast and the current outlook.

The presenter said the district’s days of cash on hand are expected to remain relatively stable through 2028 but to decline sharply by 2030 (an illustrative drop cited was from roughly 49 to 31 days on hand). Board members pressed presenters on state benchmarks for cash, the effect on bond ratings and specific expense pressures including rising school-bus costs (cited as about $170,360 per bus for current purchases versus roughly $106,000 five years ago) and a roughly 15% insurance-cost increase.

Meeting discussion included a low-probability, high-impact scenario in which a citizen initiative to abolish property taxes would eliminate an estimated 85–90% of local revenue, jeopardizing bond security and many services; presenters said signatures were still being collected and characterized that scenario as a risk, not a forecast assumption.

Board members and administrators discussed next steps: monitoring state action in Columbus, re-examining expenditure priorities to protect core programs and teachers, and timing future levy conversations so the district can maximize inflationary growth under existing rules if a levy is pursued. No levy was proposed or voted on at this meeting; board members approved the five-year forecast as presented and directed continued committee work on financial and facilities planning.