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CCRPC projects about 10,000 new residents in Chittenden County by 2050
Summary
CCRPC staff reported an updated demographic forecast showing slower growth overall but roughly 10,000 additional residents in Chittenden County by 2050; the forecast will be broken down to municipal and smaller modeling zones for the Metropolitan Transportation Plan.
Jason Charest, senior transportation planning engineer at CCRPC, told the Transportation Advisory Committee that the commission is updating its population, employment and household forecast (last updated in 2017). Early results indicate slower growth than previous forecasts, with about 10,000 new residents forecasted in Chittenden County by 2050.
Charest said the update aligns with the statewide timeline and will be broken down to the municipal level, with further zoning of the data to support modeling for the upcoming Metropolitan Transportation Plan. Erica Quallen Towle asked about the granularity and how the forecasts will relate to Land Use Review Board maps; Charest said municipal-level forecasts will be subdivided into smaller zones for modeling and noted Chittenden County will receive a more detailed breakdown than other regions.
Committee members discussed how the forecast ties into housing-target scenarios and modeling assumptions that will be used to evaluate implications if regions meet or miss housing goals. The forecast will be presented to the Vermont Association of Planning and Development Agencies later in the week and to the CCRPC Planning Advisory Committee next week. No formal committee action was taken at the TAC meeting.
