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Hugo staff say Met Council growth forecasts are "low and wrong," warn of planning impacts
Summary
City staff told the Hugo City Council the Metropolitan Council's new system statement sets community designations and lower population forecasts that could force developers or the city into a formal amendment process; staff said they may ask the council to formally dispute the statement if talks with Met Council staff do not resolve differences.
Hugo's community development director told the City Council on Nov. 3 that the Metropolitan Council's new system statement for the 2050 planning cycle assigns the western portion of Hugo a "suburban edge" designation, raises the suburban-edge minimum density to 3.5 units per acre, and includes population forecasts the city believes undercount growth.
"The forecasts are low and wrong," Community Development Director Rachel Juba said, noting the Met Council's projected population figures for Hugo are 18,500 in 2030, 20,500 in 2040 and 23,500 in 2050. Juba said the city's 2024 estimate is about 17,300 and that Hugo has sustained roughly 1 to 2 percent annual growth over the past 15 years.
The system statement is a required Metropolitan Council document that influences local comprehensive plans and funding eligibility. Juba told council members that the new minimum density for suburban-edge communities, now 3.5 units per acre (up from 3.0), and the council's population forecasts could complicate Hugo's planning if local development proposals would cause the city to exceed the Met Council's household and population forecasts. "Part of their dispute process is working directly with your sector rep," Juba said, and staff said they are already engaged with Met Council staff to resolve the discrepancy.
Juba also detailed other system-statement elements that Hugo must address in its 2050 plan: an affordable housing need allocation of 418 units for 20312040; classification of regional transportation facilities (including removal of a previously shown fixed-rail extension on Highway 61, the so-called purple line); regional sewer and water service area boundaries that keep eastern Hugo outside the metropolitan urban service area; and new statutory requirements to include climate mitigation and adaptation information in local comprehensive plans.
Council members asked staff how the forecasts might affect future projects. Brian Bridal, city staff, clarified that if a project would cause Hugo to exceed its Met Council forecast the developer or city may need to pursue a comprehensive plan amendment and a formal review or hearing with Met Council committees or the state Office of Administrative Hearings. "So it is a significant impact on the process that would be in front of anybody wanting to build something," Bridal said.
Next steps, staff said, include further consultation with the planning commission, parks commission and economic development authority, preparing a work plan for the 2050 plan in early 2026 and continuing discussions with Met Council staff. If those discussions fail to resolve the forecast discrepancy, staff said they will return to council seeking approval to formally dispute the system statement.
