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Wildfire Safety Advisory Board adopts risk-model guidance, urges caution using absolute model values
Summary
The board unanimously adopted a staff risk-modeling report that urges Energy Safety to implement prior recommendations, to avoid relying on single absolute modeled values when ranking circuits, and to require utilities to test tail-value sensitivity and alternative consequence methods.
The Wildfire Safety Advisory Board voted unanimously June 3 to adopt a risk-modeling report prepared by its risk model committee that asks Energy Safety to implement the board's 2025 recommendations and to apply several modeling safeguards when using extreme-condition simulations to rank wildfire risk.
The report's core recommendations are: fully implement the board's 2025 risk-model recommendations; exercise caution in basing decisions on absolute values of modeled risk given model uncertainty; require utilities to compare rankings using both expected (mean) and tail (maximum) values so the influence of extreme scenarios can be assessed; and require utilities to test and report on alternatives or supplements to wildfire-spread models when calculating consequence under extreme conditions.
One public comment was submitted by Technosylva, a wildfire-modeling vendor; the committee reviewed the comments, met with the company and made clarifying edits but did not change the report's findings. The board added a minor amendment at adoption: a citation linking the new report to the 2025 recommendations so readers can quickly find the prior guidance.
Committee lead Sean (Risk Model Committee staff) told the board the recommendations are designed to reduce overreliance on single-model absolute outputs and to increase transparency about model limitations. In presenting the motion, a board member said the guidance aims to improve the traceability, consistency and validation of the risk-model inputs used in utilities' wildfire mitigation plans.
Why it matters: The guidance addresses how utilities and regulators should use wildfire-risk simulations in WMP prioritization and oversight. The board emphasized transparency, validation, and reporting of uncertainty, especially under extreme-weather scenarios that are difficult to validate empirically.
Outcome: The motion to approve the report, with the minor amendment to add a link to the 2025 recommendations, passed on a 6-0 roll-call vote.
