Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Regional Growth Forecast topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Board adopts 2025–2060 regional growth forecast after debate over Vandenberg assumptions
Summary
The Santa Barbara County Association of Governments approved population, household and employment estimates for 2025–2060 (population +75,000; households +38,000; employment +48,000) but several directors expressed concern that projections under‑ or over‑represent near‑term growth tied to Vandenberg Space Force Base and local construction.
The Santa Barbara County Association of Governments on June 25 adopted the 2025–2060 regional growth forecast that will feed the next regional transportation plan and sustainable community strategy.
Staff said the forecast projects a countywide population increase of about 75,000 (17%), household growth of about 38,000 (25%) and employment growth of about 48,000 (21%) by 2060. Planners described the figures as lower than the 2019 pre‑COVID forecast but higher than a Department of Finance baseline in parts of the county due to local input and anticipated housing projects.
Tom Vo, planning division staff, said the numbers combine state demographic modeling with a bottom‑up local input process and were reviewed by a local economist. He described the distribution of growth, with the most household increases projected for Santa Maria, Lompoc and the Santa Maria unincorporated subregion.
Several directors questioned the confidence of the forecast and whether it properly incorporates near‑term growth at Vandenberg Space Force Base and associated private sector activity (notably SpaceX and related contractors). Director Mosby said the forecast "is off by significant magnitudes" compared with what local officials are seeing on the ground in Lompoc; staff responded that the model is updated periodically and that employment data are based on a countywide dataset tied to employer locations.
Staff also explained how the forecast relates to RHNA (regional housing need allocation): HCD typically uses Department of Finance county baselines; if a board‑approved regional forecast is within 1.5% of DOF it may be used for RHNA — SB CAG’s adopted forecast sits outside that range and staff said HCD will likely default to DOF for housing need calculations.
Director Hartman moved to approve the forecast estimates; Director Brown seconded and the board approved by roll call.
Next steps: the adopted estimates will be integrated into regional land‑use and transportation models for the RTP/SCS and to support infrastructure and funding planning; staff noted the forecast will be updated again as new information (for example about Vandenberg developments) becomes available.
