Regional housing needs assessment shows 7,600‑unit gross shortfall; Aspen allocated over half of Pitkin County need

Consultants from EPS presented the final regional housing needs assessment to the City of Aspen and Pitkin County on June 22, reporting a regional gross housing need of roughly 7,600 units and outlining displacement risks, affordability gaps and preliminary strategy themes.

"This assessment is required by the state per proposition 123 in Senate Bill 24174 guidelines," Liz Axburg, Aspen's housing policy analyst, told the meeting as she introduced the EPS team and the report's purpose. She emphasized the document "does not need to be adopted" and is intended to give boards and councils an opportunity to comment before submission to the state.

EPS presented a demographic and jobs overview that drove the allocation: Pitkin County's population is relatively stable and older, while Garfield County is growing and younger. The consultants said 62% of Pitkin County jobs are filled by commuters from outside the county and that many of the region's largest occupations (food service, sales, office support) have median wages below the regional median.

The study found steep housing prices and a large stock of non‑primary homes: presenters said roughly 41% of housing units in Pitkin County are vacant/non‑primary residences and that programmatically affordable units total about 4,500 in the region, more than 90% of which are in Pitkin County. EPS reported that in 2024 many upper‑valley sales were only affordable to households earning 300–400% AMI.

On need estimates, EPS gave the gross regional total of about 7,600 units, allocating about 2,850 to Pitkin County and about 4,800 to Garfield County. After removing projects already underway, the consultants reported a reduced Pitkin County residual need of roughly 2,600 units in the planning horizon; the greatest needs are concentrated between 50% and 120% AMI and skew toward rental at lower incomes.

Phase two of the report identified displacement‑risk indicators — including cost burden, low‑income renter concentration and aging housing stock — and flagged development barriers such as land scarcity, high construction costs, nonlocal demand pressure and water access constraints. Consultants and staff said these constraints will shape what the later, adopted housing action plan can feasibly achieve.

Board members pressed EPS on reconciliation between limited developable land and the computed need, turnover of longtime owner‑occupied homes, and consistency of mitigation/exaction policies across jurisdictions. EPS said the assessment is meant to describe magnitude and drivers of need; specific actions, financing and statutory changes will be addressed in a separate housing action plan that each jurisdiction must adopt.

The consultant team said the report will be submitted to the state after a scheduled round of nine regional presentations and that the housing action plan — which will contain proposed policies and programs — will follow as a distinct, adoptable document.