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Consultant: Bond survey shows majority support for $118 million measure; board told to prepare outreach and file by Aug. 7
Summary
A consultant told the El Rancho Unified School Board that a $118 million Prop 39 bond at roughly $55 per $100,000 polls at 53% immediate yes and 68% yes plus "lean yes," with support rising to 61% after voters hear details; he recommended outreach and flagged an Aug. 7 Los Angeles County filing deadline and a possible July 21 board action.
Mark Farrell, the district's bond consultant, told the El Rancho Unified School Board on June 29 that a proposed $118,000,000 general-obligation bond tested above the 55% approval threshold required under Prop 39 when "yes" voters and those who "lean yes" are combined.
"If the election was held today, would you vote yes or no on that measure? So 53%, yes," Farrell said during a presentation of the survey results, later adding that an additional 15% of respondents leaned yes, which yielded about 68% yes/lean-yes on the initial question. He said respondents who read more details about what the bond would pay for moved the overall support to about 61%.
Why it matters: the bond is intended to fund facilities work the district has prioritized in its facilities plan and could be placed on the ballot under a Prop 39 process that requires at least 55% approval. Farrell said projects that tested strongly included replacing HVAC systems, plumbing and water filtration, ADA improvements, upgrades to special education and mental-health facilities, and renovating CTE and performing-arts spaces. Energy-efficiency projects and EV charging stations were less popular than classroom-focused projects but still tested above the required threshold when combined with "no difference" responses in many cases.
Survey details and margin of error The consultant said the survey ran in the first weeks of May and collected roughly 353 completed responses in English and Spanish (about 5% Spanish); he reported a margin of error of about ±5.2% on the results. Farrell described the sample size as typical for district-level polling and said that, while not definitive, the results were a useful snapshot of voter attitudes.
Tax rate sensitivity and messaging Farrell said he tested two tax-rate scenarios (below $35 per $100,000 and near $55 per $100,000) and observed modest sensitivity to the higher rate but no catastrophic drop-off in support. He recommended the district do targeted outreach and provide clear, multilingual informational materials explaining what the bond would pay for and fiscal safeguards required under Prop 39, such as public disclosure and an independent oversight committee.
Timing and next steps Farrell told the board the deadline to submit a resolution to Los Angeles County is Aug. 7, and the board could vote to place a measure on the ballot as soon as the July 21 regular meeting if it wished. He said staff can prepare the required project list and ballot-language documents, and advised that informational outreach will likely increase the yes vote.
Trustee reaction Board members asked routine methodological questions about sample size and turnout, and several trustees pressed for clarity on which projects resonated most with voters and how communications would be handled. Farrell reiterated that the survey is a point-in-time measure and recommended a combination of district-led informational work and, if the board wants a campaign, a separate committee to do outreach and fundraising.
What comes next District staff agreed to bring draft project lists and sample language back to a future meeting and to discuss communications materials that could be produced in English and Spanish. The board did not take final action on placing a measure on the ballot at this meeting.
