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Board reviews enrollment projections; K–8 growth expected while high‑school numbers dip then rebound
Summary
Administrators presented October 1 actuals and Prowder projections showing modest K–8 enrollment increases, a near‑term high‑school decline and a projected rebound by 2026–27; members questioned projection variance, open‑choice accounting and 18–22 and private‑school cohorts for apportionment.
District administrators reviewed October 1 enrollment figures and consultant projections that show K–8 enrollment rising modestly while high‑school enrollment will dip next year before rebounding in 2026–27.
The presentation summarized that Easton and Reading combined for 691 resident students (698 including non‑resident categories) as of Oct. 1 and that Prowder's projection anticipates an uptick in birth cohorts, which drives a forecasted rise in lower‑grade enrollment. One administrator summarized the chart: "As a result of student enrollment you'll see it will increase in K to 8 schools ... and as they transition into the high school student enrollment will decline next year and then gradually rebound," and provided a multi‑year chart projecting a gradual recovery to prior levels.
Board members questioned the accuracy of kindergarten projections — noting a recent 20‑student miss — and asked whether Prowder's methodology accounts for homeschoolers returning in later grades, how open‑choice students and 18–22 special‑education cohorts are counted for apportionment, and whether private‑school trends were included. Administrators said some categories (open‑choice and 18–22 students) are treated differently in apportionment and that precise treatment would be confirmed with apportionment/legal guidance.
Members concluded that the district should not assume a large immediate enrollment swing for FY26 budgeting; staff will provide additional data on private‑school trends, 18–22 student counts and how open‑choice students are apportioned before finalizing budget recommendations.
