Connecticut Paid Leave fund stronger than expected but claims are trending up, actuaries say

Spring Group presented the quarterly actuarial review for the first nine months of the authority's fiscal year, reporting net positive activity of $19.9 million for the July 2024'March 2025 period and an ending incurred-basis fund balance of $648.6 million as of March 31.

The Spring Group representative said the results reflected "slightly higher contributions, slightly higher investment income and slightly lower incurred claims" than previously projected. The presenter noted that the authority began the period with a fund balance of $628.7 million and that the full-year projection remains conservatively unchanged at $642.8 million despite recent positive experience.

Board financial staff and the actuarial presenter emphasized a longer-term change in claims patterns. The presenter said the metric comparing adverse losses over $1 million to the net fund balance is at about 0.4:1, below the 0.5:1 target but "trending upwards," and cautioned that continuing increases in claim incidence or duration would require monitoring and potential actuarial adjustments.

Dave, who reviewed the regularly reported financials later in the meeting, echoed the actuary's emphasis on monitoring benefit payments. He noted that benefit payments have produced higher-than-budgeted variances in recent months and provided a more granular accounting of month-to-month contribution and expense flows.

The authority plans to continue quarterly monitoring and to use the upcoming annual actuarial review to refresh incidence and duration assumptions. No board action was taken on funding policy at this meeting.