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MPSC hears winter energy outlook; industry group outlines new national Natural Gas Readiness Forum

Michigan Public Service Commission · December 19, 2024
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Summary

MPSC staff reported generally healthy natural gas and propane supplies for the 2024–25 heating season and forecast modestly higher household winter gas consumption; the American Gas Association described a new industry-led Natural Gas Readiness Forum to improve coordination across gas and electric stakeholders.

The Michigan Public Service Commission heard a winter energy briefing Dec. 19 that concluded natural gas and propane supplies entering the heating season were above recent averages and that Michigan should be broadly prepared for winter demand.

Ethan Kramer, an economic analyst in the commission's energy security section, presented the 2024–25 Michigan winter energy appraisal. Kramer said natural gas is the primary heating fuel for roughly "75% of households" in the state and that national supply measures were about 5% above the five-year average. He forecast average household consumption of about 79,000 cubic feet between November and March and an estimated average monthly natural gas bill of $141 over that period, compared with $131 last winter, assuming normal winter temperatures.

Kramer also reported that Midwest propane stocks were "above average," citing an Energy Information Administration market update and identifying Michigan stocks near six million barrels, roughly 1 million barrels higher than the five-year average. Retail propane prices in Michigan have remained near last year's averages, he said, and the appraisal includes electricity and other petroleum markets expected to be "readily available" for residents and businesses.

Commissioners thanked staff for the appraisal and noted staff's routine outreach to propane retailers as a means to improve situational awareness and detect price spikes or supply disruptions early.

Following the staff presentation, Matthew Aen of the American Gas Association briefed the commission on a voluntary, industry-led Natural Gas Readiness Forum that grew from recommendations by the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners' Gas-Electric Alignment for Reliability (GEAR) working group. Aen said the forum's first meeting (Dec. 16–17) drew about 90 in-person attendees, including state regulators, federal agency representatives and industry participants, and featured panels on weather outlooks, operational readiness tools and regional coordination.

Aen said the forum aims to improve communication and coordination across the gas value chain and the electric sector through an annual national meeting and additional regional convenings to account for differing regional energy mixes and operational needs. He described the effort as voluntary, industry-administered by the American Gas Association, and intended to expand situational awareness across stakeholders in advance of winter.

The commission noted the growing interdependence between gas and electric systems and signaled that it would continue related work at the state level, including updates and reporting tied to ongoing curtailment-procedures efforts.