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Budget Committee hears Medicaid and revenue forecasts showing a $465 million reduction in projected spending

Indiana State Budget Committee · December 18, 2025
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Summary

FSSA Secretary Mitch Roob presented a Medicaid forecast showing $465 million less state expenditure for the current budget cycle; the committee also heard economic and revenue forecasts and discussed how identified savings might be allocated.

FSSA Secretary Mitch Roob presented the committee with the Medicaid forecast and confirmed the forecasted reduction of $465 million in state expenditures for the current budget cycle. Lawmakers asked whether the lower projection increased fiscal risk and whether identified savings could be used to eliminate Medicaid waitlists or cover SNAP administrative costs. Secretary Roob said the administration would provide additional figures and noted FSSA’s continuing work to manage program costs and spending forecasts.

S&P Global Principal Economist Tom Jackson presented the economic outlook and said labor-market and policy uncertainty influence forecasts. Krista Ricci, director of fiscal policy for the Senate Republican Caucus, and Hari Razafindramanana, chief economist for the Indiana State Budget Agency, presented the revenue forecast; members asked whether the forecast assumed roughly $5 billion in combined balances by FY2027 and whether the $465 million was included. Director Chad Ranney confirmed those figures were included and said the plan is to proceed with the current budget, attributing the surplus primarily to higher-than-expected revenue.

Committee members asked for more detail on the Pathways Waiver dashboard, Medicaid contingency and how near‑term savings would be applied; Secretary Roob and staff agreed to provide follow‑up information. The meeting adjourned at 3:20 p.m.