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Santa Ana staff test voter support to keep Measure X rate and remove sunset
Summary
City staff presented polling and legal timing that could put a ballot measure before voters to make the local Measure X sales-tax rate permanent, citing a December poll showing majority backing but stressing that a general-election placement would be required for a simple-majority approval.
An assistant city manager told the Measure X Citizen Oversight Committee on June 10 that staff have been polling Santa Ana voters and preparing ballot language to eliminate the scheduled reduction and sunset in the city's local sales tax (commonly called Measure X).
The assistant city manager said a December scientific poll of 623 likely voters showed initial support of 64% for sample ballot language; support rose to 67% after positive messaging and slid to 63% after negative arguments were presented. "We found that there's a lot more support for our service levels than what we may have thought," the assistant city manager said, summarizing the polling results and how messaging affected responses.
Why it matters: Measure X adds 1.5 percentage points of local sales tax that became effective April 1, 2019; the ballot originally set a scheduled reduction to 1% on April 1, 2029 and a full sunset in 2039. Staff told the committee the city's 10-year outlook shows expenditures growing faster than recurring revenues and that the scheduled reduction in 2029 could create a large budget gap. The assistant city manager said staff want to give the council and residents time to decide whether they want to maintain today's service levels rather than making abrupt reductions later.
The process and timing: City staff said the city council approved on March 17 that staff should draft final ballot language (roughly 75 words used for polling), produce public information materials in multiple languages and run a tracking survey. The tracking results will be presented to council on July 7; if the tracking survey returns results consistent with the tests, staff expects to recommend that council adopt a resolution to place the question on the November ballot. The assistant city manager noted legal constraints: "a general tax measure placed at a general election requires a simple majority; a special election or a measure dedicating dollars to a specific purpose can require a two-thirds threshold," and added that city resources may be used to inform voters but not to advocate.
What was discussed: Committee members pressed staff on polling methodology, asked to see the draft ballot language and asked whether the timing (this year versus waiting until a later general election) might affect voter sentiment. Staff said they had tested several language versions (December test language, updated tracking-language, and a final city-attorney-reviewed version to go to council) and that translations and outreach materials in English, Spanish and Vietnamese are already prepared for public information.
Next steps: The city will publish tracking-survey results with the July 7 council agenda; if staff recommends placing the item on the November ballot, council would act in July to place it there. If the council does not place a general-tax measure at a general election, staff warned, it would face different timing and a higher voter-threshold constraint for special elections.
