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Sonoma Water tells supervisors its 2025 water plan shows supplies sufficient through 2050 under modeled scenarios
Summary
Sonoma Water presented the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan and the required Water Shortage Contingency Plan, reporting that model runs show adequate supply through 2050 under average, single‑dry and multiple‑dry scenarios while noting Lake Mendocino could be stressed in some single‑dry projections after 2035.
Sonoma Water and its consultant presented the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) and accompanying Water Shortage Contingency Plan to the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors on May 12. Staff said the plan projects water supply and demand through 2050 and includes drought‑risk, energy intensity and transmission‑system analyses.
Paul (presenter for Sonoma Water) said contractors' projected demands have declined since 2020 and contractors are relying more on local supplies. Consultant Renee Guillen (Brown & Caldwell) summarized the modeling: average‑year, single‑dry‑year and multiple‑dry‑year scenarios all indicated sufficient supplies to meet projected demands through 2050 under the assumptions used. The modeling used historical unimpaired hydrology series and accounted for changes including the Forecast‑informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) program.
Renee and colleagues noted the modeling flagged a potential mid‑century shortfall for Lake Mendocino under certain single‑dry‑year assumptions (2035–2050) that could affect Sonoma Water's ability to maintain minimum in‑stream flows; staff said Sonoma Water would coordinate with the State Water Resources Control Board and upper‑river water managers before taking action if conditions warranted.
Board members asked for additional language in planning documents that would memorialize coordination steps and the playbook used during the 2021–22 curtailments; staff agreed to add specifics describing prior coordination and to pursue an ad hoc process for upper‑river coordination items. Supervisors also pressed on the timing of the nexus/rate study and on feasibility studies for consolidation of small districts into larger operators (for example potential transfers to Santa Rosa and Windsor).
The board voted to adopt the UWMP and the shortage contingency plan as presented; staff said the adopted plans will be filed with the California Department of Water Resources by the July 1 deadline.
