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State advisers: proposed federal changes could cost California billions and shift costs to counties
Summary
County-contracted advisers told supervisors that changes to federal eligibility and a push to shift SNAP/CalFresh administrative costs could cost California tens of billions and transfer significant expenses to state and counties; the committee also heard that the county-sponsored SB 617 advanced on consent.
Amy Costa of Full Moon Strategies briefed the committee on potential state-level consequences if federal proposals change eligibility and program funding. Costa cited preliminary state projections saying the governor estimated a $28,400,000,000 loss in federal funds over the coming decade and that as many as 3,400,000 Californians "could be at risk of losing their healthcare coverage" under the combined effects of redetermination changes and proposed work requirements.
She also described potential CalFresh impacts: the governor's office projected annual federal funding reductions between $2,800,000,000 and $5,400,000,000 and signaled a mandatory 5% shift of food benefits to the state and a 25% shift of administrative costs to the state and counties. Costa noted that California's documented error rate (10.98% in the latest state data) could make the state liable for a higher share of costs under the proposed match rules.
On local budgets and timing: Committee members pressed advisers about whether revenue-side options were being discussed to cover shortfalls. Costa said groups are discussing extending prior revenue measures (for example, the tax measures sometimes referred to as Prop 30/Prop 55) or other options, but no consensus exists yet and political timing ahead of the November election could constrain appetite for new revenue measures.
Bills and committee action: Costa reported that SB 16 (a homelessness bill by Senator Blakespear) was pulled from its final hearing and will not advance this year; by contrast, the county-sponsored SB 617 (California Worker Adjustment and Retraining Act) "received bipartisan support and passed unanimously, on the consent," and was referred to the Assembly Appropriations Committee with a recommendation to place it on that chamber's consent calendar.
Ending: County staff said the full board will receive a briefing on county-level impacts next week and that they will need to model phased budget effects tied to redetermination timing and program enrollment shifts.
