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Analytics firm shows Kyrene losing students to charter and neighboring districts; board sees early-warning potential
Summary
Bespoke Economics demonstrated SignalEd enrollment tools showing Kyrene’s public-school service rate falling (from ≈81% to ≈77%) and a net loss of roughly 170 students to school choice. Presenters recommended predictive modeling to identify at-risk students for early outreach.
A data presentation on April 7 showed Kyrene Elementary District is losing ground to school-choice competitors and that predictive analytics could help reduce further churn.
Matthew Ham of Bespoke Economics demonstrated the SignalEd tool for the board and said Kyrene’s public‑school service rate — the share of school‑age public‑school families inside district boundaries who attend district schools — declined from about 81% in 2022 to roughly 77% as of the latest data. Ham highlighted that some nearby schools, including Knox Gifted Academy and BASIS, have increased their intake of Kyrene resident students in recent years.
"Kyrene, unfortunately, falls into the bottom left quadrant," Ham said, explaining that means the district is facing both demographic headwinds and a shrinking service rate. The presenters showed a district-level timeline in which total district enrollment (green line) fell from about 14,000 in 2022 to about 12,375 and the number of public-school families living inside Kyrene (blue line) fell to about 12,545.
Partner Patrick Cizik explained churn modeling and recommended using predictive risk scores to identify current students at higher risk of leaving. "You can use this information to look at these at-risk students and ensure they're receiving district resources to ensure their needs are being met," he said, outlining risk factors such as recent enrollment length, distance to school, low attendance, proximity of competitors and socioeconomic instability.
The presentation gave the board concrete counts of where resident students have gone: roughly 16% of resident public-school families now attend charter schools (about 2,020 students), about 6.9% (≈862 students) attend other districts, and net withdrawals to ESA-style programs have risen in recent reporting (presenters cited a rise in the number who formally withdrew to take an ESA to about 438 in early 2026). Ham said Kyrene is losing an estimated net 170 students on balance due to choice, not just residential moves.
Board members welcomed the tool for its ability to show destinations of departing students and stressed combining data with face-to-face outreach. Superintendent Tenney and Dr. Osmayer said staff would follow up to integrate the tool into retention planning.
What’s next: District leaders said they will explore using the analytic tool for targeted outreach and retention strategies and will continue monitoring open-enrollment and ESA trends.
