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Mid Kaweah GSA presents urban strategic plan as Tulare faces accelerating subsidence
Summary
The Mid Kaweah Groundwater Sustainability Agency told Tulare City Council that groundwater levels under the city continue to decline and parts of the city have lost several feet to subsidence; the GSA recommended near-term recharge, injection tests and agricultural fallowing while the plan proceeds to phase 2 modeling.
The Mid Kaweah Groundwater Sustainability Agency presented an urban strategic plan on July 7 that warns of accelerating groundwater declines and subsidence beneath the city of Tulare and lays out short-, medium- and long-term actions to stabilize groundwater levels.
Aaron, speaking for the GSA and Tulare Irrigation District, said the agency was removed from State Water Resources Control Board probation in December 2025 and is now back under Department of Water Resources review. He said the plan is intended to identify candidate actions to test in phase 2 modeling rather than to be a final package.
On subsidence, Aaron said benchmarks near Page Avenue sank roughly 3 feet between 2021 and 2025 and that "we're losing several about a foot a year in certain areas," leaving some locations with only about "5, 6 feet left of subsidence" before the plan's minimum thresholds are reached. He described a widespread cone of depression beneath the city and noted the Corcoran clay layer increases the risk of permanent ground compaction when lower aquifers are pumped.
To address the problems, the GSA recommended a set of urban-specific strategies: move surface-water recharge closer to city limits, test injection of treated or recycled water to replenish lower aquifers, capture stormwater for recharge inside the urban boundary, and pursue temporary fallowing or leasing of agricultural land adjacent to the city to reduce competing lower-aquifer pumping. "We needed to increase how much upper aquifer recharge we do and then move that pumping up," he said, noting water-quality issues will need to be examined for injection projects.
The consultant briefed council on the trade-offs: a UC Merced economic analysis cited by the presentation estimated that achieving sustainability could reduce local agricultural-driven economic output by about $1 billion annually. Aaron said that underscores the need to balance conservation with regional economic impacts and to coordinate with neighboring jurisdictions and irrigation districts.
Council members asked about timing and control measures for growth. City Manager Mark Mondell and Aaron said phase 1 identifies candidate actions and phase 2 will use groundwater models to quantify cost, schedule and expected benefit for each option; the GSA recommended moving quickly on short-term measures while reserving longer-term projects (treatment-plant relocation, large injection facilities) for phased implementation.
The council did not take immediate action on the plan but discussed next steps including staff coordination, modeling results, and opportunities to use policy tools to align land-use decisions with groundwater objectives.
