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CCRPC projects about 10,000 new residents in Chittenden County by 2050
Summary
CCRPC staff reported an updated demographic forecast showing slower growth overall but approximately 10,000 additional residents projected in Chittenden County by 2050; staff said data will be made available at municipal and smaller zone levels to support the Metropolitan Transportation Plan update.
Jason Charest, Senior Transportation Planning Engineer at CCRPC, presented an updated population, employment and household forecast at the June 2 TAC meeting. Charest said the forecast — the first update since 2017 — is aligned with a statewide update and projects roughly 10,000 additional residents in Chittenden County by 2050, noting that the region remains a growth area but that many variables could change the outcome.
Charest said the forecast will be published at the municipal level and will be broken into smaller zones to support modeling for the upcoming Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) update. Committee members asked about the granularity of the data and how it relates to Land Use Review Board maps; Charest said municipal-level forecasts will be further subdivided for modeling purposes, and staff will present the data to VAPDA and the CCRPC PAC in the coming week.
The forecast is intended to inform transportation modeling, project prioritization and scenario planning tied to local housing targets; staff emphasized the projection is conditional on many assumptions and subject to change as underlying factors evolve.
