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Toll scenarios, low‑income discount and revenue forecasts presented to committee
Summary
WSDOT and consultants presented four toll‑rate scenarios, modeling assumptions and a level‑3 traffic and revenue forecast that supports $1.5 billion in toll funding for the first funded phase; staff said pre‑completion tolling is tentatively scheduled for July 1, 2028 and that a 50% low‑income discount is included in scenarios.
Ed Barry, toll division director at the Washington State Department of Transportation, and consultant staff presented the committee with the traffic, diversion and revenue work underpinning the program’s toll assumptions. Barry described an iterative process in which the bi‑state commissions set policy objectives, the traffic and revenue team models outcomes and the state treasurers test financing implications.
Liz Horta of the consultant team summarized the level‑3 study that used Oregon Metro’s regional travel‑demand model and a Stantec toll diversion model calibrated with new field counts, origin‑destination data and a stated‑preference survey. ‘‘Pre completion tolling would begin on 07/01/2028’’ she said; staff assumed post‑completion tolling would begin when the new bridge opens (they used a July 1, 2035 assumption for modeling purposes).
The team presented four scenarios with different pre‑ and post‑completion rate structures and escalation assumptions. Staff noted all scenarios include a low‑income discount that the study modeled as a 50% discount for eligible households (qualification at up to 200% of the federal poverty level) and said the study expects 4–6% of transactions to use the program, representing roughly 2–3% of annual revenues.
Brent Baker, the program’s financial structures lead, explained how gross toll receipts become net revenue after operations, maintenance and reserves, and how that net revenue supports borrowing capacity. He told the committee the funded‑phase financial plan is built with a $1.5 billion toll‑revenue assumption and that independent state treasurer offices have reviewed the feasibility of that figure for scenario 2 in the finance base case.
Questions and context: Members asked about cost‑to‑collect, how discounts affect other customers and how toll schedules differ by time of day. Staff said they will share detailed model outputs and that final rates and policy choices will be set by the bi‑state commissions before implementation.
What’s next: Staff said forecasts and debt analyses will be updated as the commissions finalize toll policies and before the first financing steps are executed.
