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Poll shows proposed 1% sales tax starting slightly "underwater," pollster warns it likely won't clear 50% before November
Summary
A poll presented to the Montezuma County commissioners found 42% initial support for a proposed 1% sales tax and 48% opposition; after information testing support rose to 47% — still short of a majority — and the pollster said timing and tax fatigue make passage unlikely without a longer education campaign.
Courtney Stivers, a public-opinion researcher who conducted a countywide survey, told the Montezuma County Board of County Commissioners that the proposed 1% sales tax measure is "starting underwater" and unlikely to reach a majority before November without substantial persuasion.
Stivers said the firm interviewed 588 registered voters from May 26—28 using the county voter file and phone-matching. "We interviewed 588 registered voter in Montezuma County," she said, adding the survey's margin of error was 3.99 percentage points at the 95% confidence interval. The data were weighted to represent expected midterm turnout.
In the uninformed test'1reading the ballot language without explanatory messaging'1Stivers reported 42% of respondents said they would vote yes, 48% said no and 10% were undecided. After respondents read information messages describing how revenue would be spent, support rose to 47% yes, 41% no and 12% undecided, a five-point net shift that Stivers said is insufficient to reach a 50% threshold.
"Unfortunately, it does start underwater on that uninformed ballot," Stivers said. She told commissioners that messages about roads and public safety performed best but that opposition stems from fiscal distrust, concerns about perceived commissioner favoritism and tax fatigue.
Commissioners pressed Stivers on methodology and timing. She described using unique text links sent to a random sample pulled from the Colorado Secretary of State voter file and said the link-and-quota approach reduced the risk of nonvoter responses. Several commissioners responded that the present level of support, coupled with a limited pre-election window, made an education campaign unlikely to flip enough voters in time. "Due to the fact of timing ... I just unfortunately don't think that you can get there by November with that timeline," Stivers said.
Stivers and commissioners also noted subgroup differences: higher approval among seniors and women in some message tests, and splits by tenure and party. She cautioned the board that while certain messages could move portions of the electorate, the measured five-point gain after information was not large enough to guarantee victory.
The board did not take formal action on the measure during the workshop; commissioners discussed the potential path forward and whether to invest in an education campaign before deciding whether to place the measure on the ballot.
