Committee hears stark long-range fiscal forecast; members consider health-insurance sharing, reserves and service prioritization

Barnstable County finance officials told the Cape Cod Regional Government Assembly of Delegates Standing Committee on Finance on June 22 that the county’s 10-year revenue and expenditure forecast shows a concerning trajectory and will require a combination of policy changes, program prioritization or use of stabilization funds to narrow projected deficits.

Treasurer Coppola summarized the forecast assumptions and warned committee members the projection, prepared about a year earlier, remains conservative: it includes a 3% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) carry-forward, typical step increases, and health-insurance increases that were modeled at roughly 8% for FY27 and conservatively higher in subsequent years. "I do stand behind where those numbers are," she said, noting that the county "will need to make some decisions about programs, about other additional revenue streams or about the use of the revenue stabilization fund that you currently have set aside."

Members questioned which levers could materially bend the deficit curve. Delegate O'Malley and others asked whether trimming COLA or step increases would make a difference; Coppola and Administrator Dutton said a one-percentage-point change in COLA or steps produces only minimal savings and is unlikely to solve the structural gap. By contrast, Deputy Speaker Bridal highlighted modeling that suggested changing premium-sharing ratios for health insurance could produce larger savings: staff analysis shown to the committee suggested moving employer premium share toward 50% could yield savings measured in the hundreds of thousands to over $1 million annually depending on plan enrollment and sharing increments.

Committee members asked for more precise data before endorsing policy shifts. Treasurer Coppola confirmed the county counted 173 employees active on the county health plan in the FY27 snapshot, noted an increase in employees opting out in FY27 after the county introduced a stipend (roughly $5,000) for proof of outside coverage, and said 15 employees had selected new high-deductible plan options starting July 1. "We did see an uptick in folks that choose to come off of the county plan," she said, adding that premium-cost differences (for example, a Harvard Pilgrim family premium of about $3,000 per month) can translate to noticeable county savings when employees opt out.

Members also raised reserve and debt-service timing questions. Delegate Frizzell pointed to a roughly $900,000 increase in FY28 debt service compared with FY27 and asked whether appropriately designated reserve or stabilization funds could cover some of that spike to reduce the FY28 gap. Treasurer Coppola replied that the county has multiple stabilization funds created by ordinance (general stabilization, revenue stabilization, emergency, PFAS, capital stabilization and others) and that use or deposit of those funds typically requires a two-thirds vote of the Assembly; she agreed to supply the ordinances’ exact language and current balances for committee review.

Administrator Dutton said staffing decisions will largely be handled on a case-by-case basis: an IT retirement prompted a small transfer this year and the county is pursuing contracts with external IT firms to handle routine or immediate-response tasks while retaining key in-house expertise. "Sometimes we will redefine what that role is based upon the county's needs," he said.

The committee asked staff to provide follow-up materials, including: the exact ordinance language and balances for each stabilization fund; a detailed breakdown of employee counts by insurance plan; historical debt-service schedules that show the FY28 spike; and further modeling of premium-sharing options and their projected savings. Members discussed reconvening before the September budget timeline to align on policy options and to avoid missing the window to meaningfully influence FY28 budgeting.

The committee adjourned after agreeing to schedule follow-up meetings and receive the requested data.