NASS: U.S. winter wheat production forecast falls to 990 million bushels, lowest since 1963

Anthony Brilleman, associate deputy administrator for analysis and estimation at the National Agricultural Statistics Service, said the July 1 yield forecast for U.S. winter wheat is 46.7 bushels per acre and total production is estimated at 990,000,000 bushels.

Brilleman told the briefing that planted acreage and harvested acres were unchanged from the June acreage report but that earlier reductions (planted area down 890,000 acres; harvested area down 805,000 acres) continue to affect production. He said the July forecast is down 3.8% from the June forecast and 29.3% from 2025.

The report combines operator‑reported survey responses (nearly 3,700 sample size for small grains collected June 28–July 6) and an objective yield survey that sampled 1,155 winter wheat fields June 24–July 1. Brilleman noted 71% of objective-yield lab samples have been processed so far, the highest July total in the series.

The forecast also reflects regional variation: NASS maps showed mostly lower yields in the lower Great Plains while Illinois and Michigan recorded state-level record highs. Brilleman said the nation’s forecasted production “will represent the lowest U.S. production since 1963” if realized, emphasizing the historical size of the decline.

Why it matters: winter wheat feed and milling supplies feed into domestic use and global trade balances; WASDE’s companion briefing projected tighter global and U.S. wheat stocks. NASS and WASDE officials said market participants should consult published official estimates for any trading or policy decisions.

The briefing concluded with NASS noting industry prereport expectations and a reminder that officials will not take public questions during the 30 minutes following release per Office of Management and Budget statistical policy.