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Health Connector launches scenario-planning effort to prepare for policy and operational risks
Summary
The Board heard a preview of scenario planning designed to map operational and strategic risks over five years, with staff emphasizing use of member data, market intelligence, and outside perspectives; Board members urged prioritizing high-probability, high-impact scenarios and community engagement.
At its May 14 meeting the Health Connector Board received an initial briefing on a scenario-planning function intended to improve organizational readiness for likely and plausible future developments.
Executive Director Audrey Morse Gasteier described scenario planning as "a strategic, iterative process of exploring multiple, plausible future scenarios to reduce organizational surprise and enhance decision-making under uncertainty." She said the work will be grouped into operational scenario planning (technology, operations, personnel) and strategic management scenario planning (policy/legal, fiscal/economic, broader market environment) and will draw on member experiences, call center and Navigator data, and market research.
Board members urged the Health Connector to prioritize high-probability, high-impact scenarios and to incorporate outside perspectives. Michael Chernew recommended focusing on scenarios tied to continued health-care spending growth, federal policy instability, and federal budget pressures; Nancy Turnbull recommended bringing in outside viewpoints to surface unforeseen risks. Rebecca Gutman asked how enrollees and impacted populations would be incorporated; Gasteier said scenario planning will be heavily informed by how the organization understands the people it serves.
Gasteier presented proposed next steps for the remainder of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027; Board members committed to continued engagement as the unit develops.
