Planner: Jefferson district could add about 1,200 housing units but still see modest enrollment decline by 2040

Nick Johnson, a planner and project manager with MD Rovers Consulting, told the Jefferson School District Board that the district is likely to add about 1,200 new housing units by 2040, but the new development will not fully offset long-term demographic declines.

Johnson said, “By 2040 we project about 1,200 new housing units in your district,” and walked the board through the firm’s methodology, which combines municipal permitting, census data and a geocoded student-address export to estimate how different housing types generate students.

Why it matters: the mix of housing and where it is built affects which schools will see enrollment pressure. Johnson projected a net district enrollment decline of about 150 students by 2040 (roughly 10 fewer per year), with most new housing concentrated downtown and in the district’s East elementary attendance area. He estimated East Elementary could gain about 50 students while Sullivan and West are projected to lose about 29 and 21 students respectively.

How the analysis works: Johnson explained the model uses two components—new housing construction and turnover in the existing housing stock—to estimate student generation. He reported sample student-generation ratios used in the model: roughly 0.44 student per new single-family home, 0.22 per existing single-family home, about 0.17 per new apartment unit and about 0.03 per new townhome unit. He cautioned that some ratios derive from small local samples and vary by unit type and occupancy (owner-occupied versus rental).

Johnson also presented an alternative scenario: without any new housing, the model projects a much larger enrollment decline (about 320 students by 2040), illustrating how new development moderates—but does not reverse—the district’s long-term enrollment losses.

Capacity implications: comparing projections to building capacities provided by district administration, Johnson said projected elementary enrollment in 2040 would be roughly 440 students below the combined capacity of the three elementary schools; the middle school projection would be about 160 students below its capacity and the high school about 300 below capacity.

Board members asked detailed questions about the firm’s historical accuracy, the effect of rental versus owner-occupied single-family housing on student yields, the role of affordable versus market-rate apartments in generating students, and where Jefferson is likely to absorb countywide housing demand. Johnson said prior projections for other districts had about a 2% error on average and that affordable apartments usually generate substantially more students per unit than market-rate apartments.

Next steps: Johnson finished by offering to answer follow-up questions and noted the projections rely on municipal land-use plans and permit trends; the board raised additional follow-up items for future discussion, including how staffing and facility planning would be affected if growth concentrates in specific attendance areas.