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Presenter reports no correlation between CLG fiscal‑stress index and state APA model
Summary
At its Nov. 9, 2017 meeting the Commission on Local Government heard a presentation from Jim Regimbal comparing the CLG Fiscal Stress Index and the Auditor of Public Accounts’ financial assessment model; Regimbal said the two models do not correlate and discussed implications for Virginia localities.
Jim Regimbal presented to the Commission on Local Government on Nov. 9, 2017, comparing two approaches to detecting local fiscal stress: the Commission’s CLG Fiscal Stress Index and the Auditor of Public Accounts’ (APA) financial assessment model (FAM). Regimbal told commissioners that, while the CLG report ‘‘makes sense’’ anecdotally, there is no correlation between the CLG model and the APA FAM model.
Regimbal described both methods in general terms and discussed how they differ when applied to Virginia localities. He also provided broader commentary on the state’s fiscal condition and the potential impacts of statewide fiscal trends on local governments’ finances and service delivery.
The presentation highlighted questions for commissioners about which indicators best anticipate financial stress and how the Commission should weigh divergent signals from different models. The Commission did not take formal action on the models during the meeting; staff follow‑up was not specified in the minutes.
The presentation and discussion appeared under the agenda item titled “Fiscal Stress Early Warning Detection System.”
