JLARC: Virginia community colleges shifting toward dual enrollment, online learning and short-term CTE

The Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) staff reported that Virginia's community colleges are adapting to a changing higher education landscape by expanding dual enrollment, online instruction and short-term career training, but officials cautioned that some changes may undermine student outcomes and strain college finances.

JLARC project leader Stephanie Pabst told commissioners that academic-transfer enrollment has fallen substantially over the past decade while dual enrollment and career and technical education (CTE) — especially noncredit Fast Forward programs — have grown. "Our study found that academic transfer enrollment is declining while dual enrollment and career and technical education enrollment is increasing," Pabst said. JLARC staff said total VCCS enrollment declined only 7% over the decade because growth in dual enrollment and Fast Forward partly offset broader declines.

Why it matters: commissioners were told the enrollment shift changes revenue dynamics for the Virginia Community College System (VCCS) because CTE credits cost the system more to provide than academic-transfer credits. JLARC reported that VCCS was appropriated about $1,400,000,000 for fiscal year 2026, with roughly half from state general funds, and warned the subsidy model that worked when academic students predominated may not be sustainable as CTE enrollment rises.

Key findings and numbers: JLARC reported a 27% decline in traditional-credit enrollment over the past decade, a 55% growth in dual enrollment students, and that 41% of courses were delivered entirely asynchronously by 2024'25. The staff analysis found asynchronous course success rates were about 3 percentage points lower than in-person courses overall and that gaps were larger for some "gateway" courses. JLARC also said Fast Forward programs now enroll more than 20,000 students in recent years; nearly all program enrollees complete their training and about 72% report earning an industry-recognized credential. Median 12-month wage gains for Fast Forward completers were reported at about $10,800, though evidence on longer-term wage progression was mixed.

Recommendations and next steps: JLARC recommended that VCCS and the state board for community colleges periodically monitor asynchronous course success and that students retaking asynchronous courses be required to meet an advisor within the add/drop period. Staff also recommended improved outcome tracking for Fast Forward (including whether participants work in the fields for which they were trained and if wages grow over 3'5 years), and a strategic review to identify opportunities for regionalization to improve efficiency at small colleges.

Responses and implementation: VCCS Chancellor David Dore said JLARC's report "reinforce[d] our shared dedication" and described ongoing efforts to align programs with labor-market needs, expand dual-enrollment access and pilot a lead-college model that would disperse high-cost programs across multiple colleges. He said VCCS supports better data and more outcome monitoring. "The goal is a job," Dore said of workforce-aligned credentials.

Unanswered questions and cautions: Commissioners pressed staff on whether demographic changes (fewer 18-year-olds) account for declines and whether other states have successfully forestalled enrollment drops; staff said demographic trends are hard to reverse and that states are experimenting with efficiency models. JLARC also flagged uncertainty about CCRV (the College and Career Ready Virginia law) implementation, noting a work group convened in October 2024 had not yet produced the detailed recommendations the legislation envisioned.

What happens next: JLARC asked the General Assembly and VCCS to consider the staff recommendations, including better coordination with K—2 school divisions and higher education institutions, expanded monitoring of online quality, and collection of more longitudinal outcome data.