Comptroller briefing: Maryland losing residents as housing costs and low supply bite

Danny DiPietro, policy research director in the Comptroller of Maryland's office, told the North Beach Town Council that Maryland has experienced net domestic out‑migration every year since 2011 and that housing affordability and an inadequate supply of homes are major drivers of that trend.

DiPietro summarized the office’s October report, “Housing and the Economy,” and said the state has ranked among the top 10 U.S. states for domestic out‑migration in recent years. “For the past four consecutive years, we’ve ranked in the top 10 of all US states for the number of residents we are losing to domestic out‑migration,” he said. The report identifies states Maryland gains residents from (District of Columbia, New York, New Jersey) and states it loses residents to (Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina).

The report highlights three headline findings. First, Maryland’s net out‑migration is persistent. Second, the demographic profile of people leaving shifted after the pandemic: the office now sees a larger share of younger and middle‑income residents among net out‑migrants rather than predominantly older, wealthier households. DiPietro said census and de‑identified IRS data show that a majority of younger movers cite housing cost as their reason for leaving; commute time was the second‑most common reason.

Third, the state’s housing market shows strong signs that demand exceeds supply. DiPietro said Maryland’s inventory of available homes is roughly 2.6 months — well below a typical six‑month healthy level — and that the Department of Housing and Community Development has estimated a nearly 100,000‑unit shortage. He said Maryland has been permitting roughly 7–8 units per 1,000 residents annually over the past decade, while the states to which Maryland is losing residents have permitted roughly three times that rate in recent years. “To meet projected population growth, Maryland needs to permit about 60,000 units per year; right now we’re doing about half that,” DiPietro said.

The presentation singled out regulation and local practices as important contributors to cost and slow supply growth. DiPietro noted national estimates from the Home Builders Association that regulation accounts for roughly 25% of the cost of a home and said Maryland ranks high on indices of land‑use regulatory strictness. He identified commonly cited constraints including sprinkler requirements, the Forest Conservation Act, rezoning barriers, adequate public facilities ordinances and development impact fees.

Council members and residents raised local implications. One attendee described a neighbor who pays $1,650 for a one‑bedroom and cannot make ends meet; DiPietro said that figure is near the state median for some markets and underscored the affordability problem. Council members also focused on local infrastructure constraints: a town representative said the local wastewater treatment plant cannot expand because of property limits and changes in state discharge rules, which restricts the town’s ability to add housing density.

DiPietro said the Comptroller’s office compiles data and analysis rather than setting policy but encouraged continued engagement with state agencies, including the Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD). He said the office interviewed over 200 developers and local officials while preparing the report and left printed fact sheets for attendees.

The presentation prompted follow‑up offers from state contacts; DiPietro suggested Housing Secretary Jake Day and DHCD staff as additional resources for local officials who want assistance translating state programs into local projects.

The council thanked the state presenters and the meeting moved to remaining local budget items.