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San Ramon unveils 10-year financial forecast; Measure N expiration, grant losses and PERS increases flagged
Summary
A consultant-led 10-year financial forecast showed San Ramon could face a significant budget gap if Measure N (1% sales tax) is not renewed; staff highlighted a $1.3 million grant loss in 2028, a $1.9 million franchise-fee reduction, and projected PERS growth of 6'9% in coming years. Staff will run additional scenarios and update the model twice a year.
City finance staff and a consulting team introduced a new long-term financial plan to the San Ramon City Council on July 14, presenting a 10-year forecasting tool designed to aid budgeting, scenario testing and strategic planning.
Finance Director Jennifer Wakeman said the model is intended to be a stable, repeatable forecasting tool for the general fund; consultant Russ Branson described the work as "a projection, not a prediction," intended to help the city test different scenarios and stress cases.
Key points highlighted by staff and Branson:
- Measure N: The city's voter-approved 1% sales tax (Measure N) is scheduled to expire in April 2035; Branson's baseline shows a notable revenue drop after that date unless the city acts to extend or replace the revenue source. - One-time grant losses: A retail-theft grant that has been supporting operations will shrink by about $1.3 million in 2028 and is expected to disappear thereafter; a correction to solid-waste franchise fees reduced revenue by approximately $1.9 million this year. - Retirement costs: Public Employees' Retirement System (PERS) actuarial trends could raise employer costs roughly 6'9% annually in the next few years before flattening, increasing pressure on the personnel portion of the general fund.
Branson recommended the council use the model to test alternatives (for example, forecasts both with and without Measure N, recession scenarios, and development-growth cases) and to update the tool at least twice annually. He said the city should also identify which services are supported by Measure N so policymakers and voters can understand trade-offs.
Council members asked staff to add alternative scenarios that show baseline positions without Measure N, development-driven revenue and expense projections, investment-income assumptions and deferred-maintenance/capital costs beyond the five-year CIP. Several council members expressed support for finding ways—through both expense management and possible revenue options—to avoid a structural shortfall when Measure N sunsets.
Public commenters urged the council to require a baseline 'no-Measure N' scenario and to build recession and development scenarios into the tool. Staff committed to follow-up work and to presenting additional scenarios and options as part of the city's financial-resiliency framework prior to next year's budget cycle.
No action was required on July 14; the presentation was informational and will be used to guide future budget decisions.
