AC Transit warns of steep budget gap; San Leandro riders face frequency cuts if regional measure fails

AC Transit officials told the San Leandro City Council on July 13 that the transit district faces a multi‑year fiscal shortfall that could trigger service reductions across the East Bay unless new, sustained revenue arrives.

"When the cost of running our bus network is rising faster than revenue supporting it, the result is a fiscal cliff," Diana Castleberry, an external affairs representative for AC Transit, said during the council’s work session presentation. Castleberry said the agency projects a 200,000,000 deficit over the next four years and noted the agency’s share of a recently negotiated state bridge loan is $55,000,000—enough to close this year’s gap but not a long‑term solution.

AC Transit transportation planner Owen Christopherson described a contingency service plan meant to protect the agency’s recently realigned "primary route network" and to minimize full line eliminations by reducing span or frequency on lower‑productivity lines. For San Leandro, Christopherson said the plan would preserve the backbone routes while trimming frequency or hours on lines that include the 9, 28, 34, 35, 40, 93 and 97; he said many core lines would remain at 15‑minute headways but that some lines would move to 30‑minute service or reduced hours.

"Our strategy is to plan for the worst and hope for the best," Christopherson said. He emphasized the plan is contingent: if new funding is secured this fall, the board will not move forward with service cuts.

Officials pointed to the proposed Connect Bay Area measure, which would ask voters in five Bay Area counties to approve a 14‑year half‑cent regional sales tax (with a different local rate in San Francisco). Castleberry said that measure, if approved, is estimated to generate about $980,000,000 annually for Bay Area transit and that AC Transit’s portion would be roughly $52,000,000 a year—funding she said would protect service and avert layoffs.

Council members pressed agency staff on student and school‑route impacts, asking specifically about line 40 and schedules near Bancroft Middle School. Christopherson said AC Transit will coordinate schedule changes with schools and pass comments to scheduling staff, and he confirmed some lines would see morning and evening frequency reductions under the contingency plan. Castleberry noted both an Alameda CTC student transit‑pass program and a youth Clipper discount exist; she said income‑based and universal student programs remain available and explained how youth discounts are administered.

Council members also raised equity concerns about Clipper and cash‑paying riders. Council Member Viveiros Walton said she was worried that underbanked riders who pay cash were effectively paying more. Castleberry acknowledged ongoing problems with the Clipper transition and said AC Transit and partner agencies are working with the Clipper vendor to resolve fare‑type errors and to assist customers through the agency’s customer service office.

The presentation also addressed the district's measures to reduce costs: Castleberry listed $9,000,000 of internal savings in the last fiscal year, operational consolidations and a temporary pension‑payment restructuring negotiated as part of the bridge loan. Council members asked for additional transparency about the pension deferral and asked staff to provide the mathematics of that deferral.

Public comment before the council included calls for more bus lanes, better bus‑stop amenities and broader ridership outreach. Alvaro Ramos urged bus lanes on East 14th and Mission Boulevard; Douglas Spalding, who said he would support the November ballot measure, asked AC Transit to explain the basis for proposed cuts to lines used by students.

AC Transit staff said the public comment period and a board public hearing timeline are scheduled through the fall; the board is expected to set a public hearing in August, and specific service‑change approvals would follow if no new funding is secured.

The council did not take action on the report; AC Transit will return with more detailed, line‑by‑line recommendations and answers to council questions.

Next steps: AC Transit plans local community outreach on the contingency plan and a board process that could culminate in service changes if a funding measure fails. Council members requested follow‑up on pension deferral details, exact line‑by‑line impacts for school trips and documentation about cash‑fare equity for unbanked riders.