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Consultant warns Plattsburgh airport faces weaker Canadian demand, urges shift in strategy before next EAS procurement
Summary
A consultant told the Clinton County Legislature that declines in Canadian border crossings and wider airline network changes have left Plattsburgh oversupplied. He urged leveraging low fees and targeting international and low‑cost carriers ahead of the county's Essential Air Service procurement.
Jack Penning, a founding managing partner of Volaire and the consultant who briefed the Clinton County Legislature, told legislators Plattsburgh International Airport is facing a marked drop in cross‑border travel and shifting airline economics that have reduced seat demand.
“We're over served today,” Penning said, summarizing his analysis of the airport’s 90‑minute catchment area. He cited U.S. Customs and Border Protection figures showing crossings at the Champlain crossing have fallen roughly 49% since the third quarter of 2024 and said passenger totals from Montreal to U.S. markets are down about 14% overall. Penning said some suspended routes were filling only about 62% of seats before suspension.
Why it matters: Plattsburgh’s business model has long depended on drawing Canadian travelers; Penning warned the county cannot support prior seat levels on Canadian demand alone. At the same time, higher fuel prices and changing consumer spending patterns reduce carriers’ appetite for marginal routes.
Penning described airline behavior in the region as a network optimization exercise: carriers are canceling and reassigning routes where yields or load factors are insufficient. He said Allegiant remains a strong local partner but is trimming service nationwide where demand is weakest. “Allegiant is not picking on us,” Penning said. “They’re trimming all along the border.”
Recommendations and next steps: Penning outlined a two‑pronged strategy. First, he urged officials to amplify Plattsburgh’s cost advantage — lower airport fees and operating costs compared with Montreal — to attract more cross‑border travelers. He cited fee spreads and the potential per‑passenger savings airlines can realize by routing Montreal customers through Plattsburgh.
Second, Penning urged aggressive carrier outreach ahead of the county’s Essential Air Service (EAS) procurement: the county’s EAS contract expires in September next year, with bids expected in March or April. He recommended attending Routes World in October and Routes Americas next February and meeting carriers (including JetBlue, United/SkyWest and American) to build business cases and position Clinton County competitively for EAS bidders.
What the legislature heard: Penning presented data on crossings, seat‑fill rates, and exchange rates (he noted Canadian‑to‑U.S. dollar values had moved from about $1.39 to roughly $1.48 in a short span), and argued those macroeconomic and currency effects make some traditional U.S. leisure routes difficult to sustain from Plattsburgh alone. He said the Allegiant–Sun Country merger and international reservations capacity create new opportunities for linking Plattsburgh to Caribbean and Mexican leisure markets, which could better match current demand patterns.
Next procedural step: Penning said county staff and the airport director will pursue carrier meetings this fall and winter and present options as the EAS procurement approaches.
