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Wipfli study: Cook County could support a 30–40‑bed assisted-living/memory‑care project; commissioners question workforce and migration assumptions
Summary
Wipfli presented a market demand assessment finding Cook County may sustain 12–18 assisted‑living beds plus 6–12 memory‑care beds (a combined 30–35 bed private‑pay project); commissioners urged sensitivity runs on in‑migration and discussed worker and childcare constraints.
A consultant hired by the HRA told commissioners on July 15 that Cook County’s demographic trends could support a modest assisted‑living and memory‑care project, but local workforce and migration assumptions will determine feasibility.
Patrick Carroll, a senior manager at Wipfli, walked the board through a market-demand assessment. Carroll said the analysis used a 30‑minute primary market area and a 45‑minute total market area, focused on private‑pay demand (baseline income thresholds set at $50,000 for independent living with sensitivity at $35,000) and factored a 10% in‑migration assumption. "We defined the primary market area as a 30 minute drive time basically from the center of Grand Marais," Carroll said, and noted that Cook County’s population aged 80+ and 85+ is projected to increase substantially over the next five years.
Under baseline assumptions Wipfli found independent living demand was not sufficient to justify new units, but that assisted living and memory care showed greater potential. Carroll summarized the assisted‑living results: "Current day an 8‑bed project ... the 5% project penetration rate suggests a need of 8 to 12 beds; looking out to 2031, that grows to 12 to 18 beds." For memory care he said current‑day demand could support about six dedicated beds, rising to eight in five years, and that combining those lines could justify a 30‑ to 35‑bed private‑pay project. Carroll added that adding Medicaid waiver capacity could bring the scale closer to a 40‑bed project.
Commissioners pressed key assumptions. Commissioner Hansen urged caution about the 10% in‑migration factor given Cook County’s large second‑home population and suggested Wipfli run higher in‑migration scenarios; Carroll agreed to provide sensitivity analyses. Several commissioners also warned that workforce availability — particularly direct‑care staff — and the local housing/childcare shortage for workers could make operating a facility difficult. "We have a work shortage... we don't have enough workers," Commissioner Hansen said, arguing the county needs coordinated housing and childcare strategies to recruit staff.
Carroll flagged two operational considerations for developers: project size (financially, assisted‑living projects often target 30–40 beds) and the wage/expense profile that operators must cover. He suggested coupling senior‑housing planning with workforce‑housing and childcare strategies to improve staff recruitment and retention.
The presentation gave the HRA a data foundation to begin outreach to potential operators and developers; commissioners asked staff to request follow‑up sensitivity runs on migration and to factor workforce solutions into any developer conversations.
