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Forks MPO socioeconomic study forecasts modest growth for East Grand Forks; data will feed regional transport plan
Summary
Consultants presented the Forks MPO draft final socioeconomic study to the East Grand Forks City Council work session, showing metropolitan growth targets of about 15,000 people, roughly 6,500 households and nearly 5,000 jobs and mapping where that growth is expected to fall over 30 years. Staff said the data will feed the MPO travel-demand model and return to city councils and the MPO executive board for final approval.
Consultants told the East Grand Forks City Council work session that the draft final Forks MPO socioeconomic study projects “overall 15,000 plus people” for the metropolitan planning area and allocates about 6,500 households and nearly 5,000 jobs across the study area.
"The main output of this study is data," consultant Dave Sweeney said, explaining the numbers are intended to feed the travel‑demand model and the Metropolitan Transportation Plan update. He described the projection method as a cohort‑component model that ages population cohorts forward and models employment by industry to produce totals through 2055.
Sweeney walked the council through the TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zone) allocation process, saying staff refined TAZ boundaries, established a 2025 baseline, ran a first allocation of jobs and households, solicited stakeholder feedback and then rebalanced totals to meet regionwide growth targets. He listed Data Axle as a proprietary source used to inform likely locations of future jobs and households and said ATAC/NDSU helped update spatial data.
A steering‑committee member responding to the maps said East Grand Forks’ growth looks different from Grand Forks, with lighter household increases and primary residential growth on the south end and several infill sites. "Most of our growth has either industrial or it's government in nature—schools, university," the committee member said.
Sweeney noted some regional employment or housing growth (for example at the Air Force Base) sits outside the TAZ network and will be modeled as external stations rather than assigned to East Grand Forks’ TAZs. He said the consultants will bring the study to both city councils next week and to the MPO executive board for final approval in August, and that ATAC has already begun updating its travel‑demand model with the study data.
Why it matters: The study provides the demographic and employment inputs that planners use to estimate future travel demand and to prioritize roadway and transit investments. Local differences in where households and jobs are allocated can affect future infrastructure planning and funding decisions.
Provenance: topicintro: SEG 022; topfinish: SEG 304.
