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National Weather Service: strong El Niño likely, NWS forecasts a hotter-than-normal North Carolina summer
Summary
The National Weather Service’s Raleigh office told state and local officials at a DEQ-hosted briefing that a strong El Niño is likely developing and long-range outlooks show above-normal temperatures statewide; the office urged officials to use its guidance and products, noting advisory thresholds and decision-support services.
The National Weather Service office in Raleigh told state and local emergency managers and public-health partners on a statewide DEQ briefing that a strong El Niño is likely to develop in 2026 and that long-range outlooks favor above-normal temperatures across much of North Carolina.
Gail Hartfield, senior meteorologist at NWS Raleigh, said the outlook maps show a "strong indication of leaning toward above normal temperatures" through the summer and into the fall and cautioned that while El Niño effects vary, overall signals point to a hotter season. "We currently are in ENSO neutral conditions, and that should hold through the next month or two," she said, adding that models show a strong El Niño developing and "expected to persist through at least the end of 2026."
Why it matters: NWS officials said the seasonal signal increases the probability of more high-heat days and, importantly, more warm nights—conditions that compound health risks. Hartfield also reviewed how the agency issues heat products and how officials can use them: outlooks at long lead times, experimental heat-risk products that combine CDC health data and climatology, then extreme heat watches within 72 hours and advisories or warnings within 24–48 hours as confidence increases.
NWS guidance and criteria: Hartfield described the operational thresholds used as general guidance (not rigid rules). For central North Carolina she said a heat advisory is typically considered when a heat index of about 105°F is expected within 48 hours and an extreme heat warning when a heat index of about 110°F is expected within 48 hours—while noting "these guidelines are fluid" and that forecasters factor in duration, time of year, sun and wind, rarity, and expected impacts on vulnerable populations.
Tools and outreach: The office highlighted online resources (weather.gov/raleigh), a dedicated heat page and weekly live briefings for official partners, decision-support services (including direct briefings for large events), and push notifications via FEMA and other apps. Hartfield urged local officials to sign up for NWS hazardous weather briefings and noted the agency’s experimental heat-risk maps that flag events historically correlated with heat-related deaths and injuries.
What happens next: The NWS asked local emergency management and public-health staff to subscribe to briefings and decision-support channels so forecasts and near-term watches and warnings can be translated into local actions such as cooling-center activation or staffing adjustments at hospitals.
Ending: The briefing passed to state climate and health partners to translate the NWS outlook into local monitoring thresholds and operational guidance.
